Thread: Water temp?

This fishing thing is getting way to technical. I sometimes long for the days when we just went fishing and some days were bountiful and others were famine. it was what it was. No checking charts and graphs, just some knowledge of the best fishing holes, a rod and reel, hooks line and bait and a lot of faith. Back then fishing was a fun relaxing way to spend your time. Today, in my opion, it has become a stressful competition to see who can catch the mostest and the biggest. Frankly, as hard as we try we are not going to figure out what makes the fish tic. A higher power is in charge of that. So I say just go fishing, relax and enjoy the experience, be it fruitfull or not.

Very Well Said

Originally Posted by Pier#r

On average the water temp at the pier probably varies just a few degrees from the buoy readings.
Maybe a little higher (at the pier) during 'extended warm periods' (like we are currently in) and probably a little lower after it's been cold and cloudy for a few days.
The relatively shallow water around the pier is much more 'weather sensitive' than it is 12 miles offshore in 86 feet deep water.

BTW, I've recently been doing some extensive research and exhaustive statistical analysis of the historic data from that buoy (42012) and found it interesting.
The amount of water temperature variation that can be experienced during the winter & spring months is about twice the dispersion of water temps experienced in the summer and fall.
See the numbers labeled STDev (Standard Deviation).



In part that's why I try to warn folks not to get too excited when the water temp rises a few degrees in mid winter.
It's very likely going to go back down that much (or more).
There is a LOT of room (statistically) for the water temp to move up and down this time of year...


Oh yeah, this most recent February and January (2015) were 'slightly above the mean average for those months.

It sure would be great if we had reliable water temp data reported from the pier!

That is very interesting, especially the dispersion between winter spring vs. summer fall. I was thinking maybe more sunny days or day light hours, but the daylight hours should be about the same. Not sure what you guys get on sunny days. How many years did you use to get your mean temp. Also I wonder what the dispersion is on the air temperature over the same amount of years. Thanks for sharing. Also the 68-95-99.7 rule. WOW I haven't thought about that since I was in college statistics class over 4 decades ago. LOL

I don't know about all the technical stuff but my bottom sounder said it was 67.8° in fish river today that's got to be a good sign.

Originally Posted by Grandpa Kirk

That is very interesting, especially the dispersion between winter spring vs. summer fall. I was thinking maybe more sunny days or day light hours, but the daylight hours should be about the same. Not sure what you guys get on sunny days. How many years did you use to get your mean temp. Also I wonder what the dispersion is on the air temperature over the same amount of years. Thanks for sharing. Also the 68-95-99.7 rule. WOW I haven't thought about that since I was in college statistics class over 4 decades ago. LOL

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
—Disraeli

Yeah GK, it made my head hurt too ;-) lol

The sample size is relatively small (5 to 7 years depending on the month) in two widely separated intervals (Aug 1983 - Jan 1984 and Apr 2009 - present), but that was still a LOT of hourly readings to average out (+3600 - 5000+ per month 52,656 total).
So I feel pretty confident with the statistical inferences based on that population.
Even though my college textbook was titled "How to Lie With Statistics" ;-) lol

The plot looked pretty close to 'bell-shaped' consistent with our humid sub-tropical climate graphs.



...the most obvious peculiarity being the temperature range 'squeeze' as the water gets warmer into the summer and early autumn.
I suspect the wider range of temperatures is due to the cumulative effect of prolonged 'cold spells' and 'warm spells' that are so typical for us on the coast (except in summer - early fall).

Somewhere in that book Darrell Huff wrote "There is terror in numbers,"
I hope most of us don't feel that way.
Really, numbers are just another way to describe our world in its intricacies.
So this is just another way I try to satisfy my insatiable desire to know and understand why things work the way they do.
For you see, the more I learn about the workings of this wonderful recreation (we call fishing) the closer it brings me to the Creator of it all!
...to know Him, and love Him, and serve Him in this life and the next!

Originally Posted by Monk

I don't know about all the technical stuff but my bottom sounder said it was 67.8° in fish river today that's got to be a good sign.

Yes!
Unfortunately the water temp didn't stay that warm...
NDBC - Station WKQA1

Cold fronts (like this) are why we can't have 'nice things' here in wintertime...


30-40 degree drop in air temp
5-12 degree drop in water temp
in a 24-hour period.

Interesting observation, the water temp at the buoy today is the warmest it's been since at least before 2010(no data before 2010) by 3degs. Hoping this is a good sign of things to come, early.

Thanks for posting this stuff. I have also read "How to Lie with Statistics," pretty enjoyable.

Managed to link warm water temps in Feb/March with the strong king years? I have suspected that warm temps bring us a good spring run and a consistent summer afterward, but I haven't gone data digging to see if there is any truth to it.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
—Disraeli

Love that quote from pier#r. Had to google Disraeli to see who that very intelligent and perceptive man was.