Thread: Watching the tropics 2017

Take a look a this monster as viewed from the Int'l Space Station!

What Hurricane Harvey looks like from space - CNN Video

Originally Posted by eym_sirius

The latest warning from the National Weather Service:
National Weather Service Text Product Display

Yikes, for TX/LA!

That's scary. There it is in black and white, just how bad it can/will be.

Report from Bob Hall Pier near Corpus Christi, TX
NDBC - Station MQTT2 Recent Data

Air temp: 76 degrees Water temp: 84 degrees
Barometer: 29.30" and falling
Winds: NW @ 45 knots with gusts to 58 knots

From Marine Weather Forecast: Corpus Christi, TX.
Let's keep them in our prayers.

Tonight
hurricane conditions. East wind 75 to 95 knots with gusts to around 125 knots becoming south 70 to 90 knots with gusts to around 115 knots after midnight. Seas 24 to 25 feet with occasional seas up to 32 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Well, if you're gonna have a major hurricane impact the coast of Texas, this is as good as spot as one could hope for...
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.0415.../data=!3m1!1e3

Halfway between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor there isn't even a house on San Jose or Matagorda Islands!
Not that the flooding and stormsurge in neighboring areas won't be bad enough, just saying it could be even worse if this had 'bullseyed' a populated part of the coast!

This Atl Invest 90L shows up as a potential "Ida" type October storm...
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broadarea of low pressure has formed over the southwestern CaribbeanSea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive fordevelopment, and this system could become a tropical depressionwithin the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northwardacross the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and intothe Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, thissystem will likely produce heavy rains over portions of CentralAmerica during the next few days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Yep!
Looks like it will get 'interesting' again early next week...
National Weather Service

Since I'm coming down next week I reject your grim reality and substitute my own that has light breezes, mild days, cool nights, clear water, an epic mackerel bite, no sharks, blackened shrimp, cheese grits, and sweet tea.

Wonderful. Haven't been there in two years. Looking forward to sun and fishing..........

From NWS MOB Weather Discussion: Wed Oct. 4, 2017...

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Weather this weekend will be determined by how Invest 90L, currently in the western Caribbean, develops and tracks. The National Hurricane Center gives this Invest an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days. With strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and southeastern U.S., Invest 90L will need to rely on some weakness in the ridge for it to track north into the Gulf of Mexico. It is appearing more likely at this time that said weakness will come from the weak surface wave discussed in the short term above. If this wave tracks west through the short term(e.g., the GFS solution), the weakness could occur in the central Gulf and Invest 90L could track north towards the central Gulf coast. If the wave moves north over the Florida peninsula (e.g.,what the latest ECMWF is suggesting), Invest 90L could take a more northeasterly track into the eastern Gulf instead. The more westerly track would provide us with strengthening onshore flow and wet weather over the weekend, while the eastern track would provide us with more of an offshore flow and dry weather. It is still too early to mention specific trends or solutions regarding future intensity of this system. Please continue to check our website (Mobile/Pensacola) or the National Hurricane Center(National Hurricane Center) for the latest updates on Invest 90L.

So NOTHING is definitive yet (a tropical cyclone hasn't yet formed).
The situation will evolve over the next few days and give us a clearer picture by the end of the week...