Tropics 2018...

**Pier#r** · 10-09-2018, 08:45 PM

Wow, what a marine forecast!
God bless and protect those in the path of this...

Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM
-314 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT
TONIGHT Hurricane conditions. East winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to around 60 knots becoming southeast 57 to 67 knots with gusts to around 80 knots after midnight. Seas 25 feet building to 49 feet with occasional seas up to 62 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY Hurricane conditions expected. Southeast winds 69 to 79 knots with gusts to around 110 knots becoming southwest 59 to 69 knots with gusts to around 95 knots in the afternoon. Seas 59 feet with occasional seas up to 75 feet subsiding to 38 feet with occasional seas up to 48 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms.

**frednic** · 10-09-2018, 09:17 PM

Michael is forecast to pass over (about 20-30 miles west) buoy 42039. That should provide some interesting data, at least for as long as the buoy lasts.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42039

**ChileRelleno** · 10-10-2018, 12:04 AM

Excerpt from NOAA's 10pm Forecast

"Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. "

**Pier#r** · 10-10-2018, 06:49 AM

Indeed, "Michael" did continue strengthening through the night (to 140 mph) and that trend is expected to continue until landfall later today.
The circulation can be well seen on radar now... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?...d=evx&loop=yes

Buoy 42039 lies in the path of the hurricane and the readings from it are astounding... (waves over 30 feet now!) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42039

Also there is a weather and tide station on the Panama City Beach Pier...
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=pcbf1
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8729210

And being a daytime landfalling hurricane, these available beach cams (copied from Storm2k) should provide a glimpse of the 'Armageddon' being unleashed upon that stretch of coastline...
Panama City Beach (Gulfcrest Cam) - https://stream.webcams.travel/1397859754
Panama City Beach (Pineapple Willy's) - https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/
Panama City Beach (Calypso) - calypsowebcam.com
Panama City Beach (Emerald View) - http://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/panam ... h-web-cam/
Panama City Beach (Holiday Inn) - https://www.hipcbeach.com/holiday-inn-resort-beach-cam/
Panama City Beach (Runaway Island) - https://runawayislandpcb.com/panama-city-beach-webcam/
Panama City Beach (Sandpiper Beacon) - https://sandpiperbeacon.com/panama-city ... m/fun-cam/
Panama City Beach (Schooners) - https://www.schooners.com/multimedia/sunsetcam.htm
Panama City Beach (Shark's) - https://seahavenbeach.com/panama-city/webcams/sharkys/
Panama City Beach (Spinnaker) - https://spinnakerbeachclub.com/beach-web-cams/
Easy Panama City Beach (By the Seas) - https://bythesearesorts.com/east-panama ... -live-cam/
St. Andrews Bay (Barefoot) - https://bythesearesorts.com/st-andrews-bay-live-cam/
Alys Beach Webcam - Alys Beach Webcam
Seaside Beach (Bud & Alley's) - https://www.budandalleys.com/webcam/
Choctawhatchee Bay - https://30a.com/bay-cam
Destin Beach (Ocean Reef) - https://www.oceanreefresorts.com/beachc ... -beach-cam

Saint Joes - http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ (may need the App or a Sub for Mark Sudduth's cams)

Our thoughts and prayers are certainly with those caught in its path!
Though the Alabama coast will be spared the worst, I fear with waves at 42012 now at 15 feet, there will be damage to the GSPPier. Pray God, for its protection! And spare those in jeopardy today!!!
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42012

**frednic** · 10-10-2018, 07:42 AM

Buoy 42039 has not reported since 4:50 CDT (the storm was still approaching).

Buoys 42040 and 42012 ("our" buoys) show wind and waves starting to subside. Maybe we've seen the worst for us. 42012 shows waves at 14.8, but remember, that is an average of the highest waves - individual waves can be twice that.

Has anybody put "eyes on" the pier?

**Pier#r** · 10-10-2018, 09:43 AM

"Hogman" is nearby.
Milton Rittelmeyer was onsite...
https://www.facebook.com/milton.ritt...5950283636322/

It's still there (no word on any damage), and the waves though YUGE, are decreasing!