Thread: Tropics 2018...

Tropical Depression XIV is expected to strengthen as it moves northward into the central GoM early this week, and become hurricane "Michael" before it reaches the Florida Panhandle...


On this trajectory the GSPPier would certainly be spared the worst, but could still receive swells large enough to create problems Wednesday morning at high tide...

Looks like the slower it moves the farther east it makes landfall because of the approaching front. GFS is one of the more westerly forecasts, UKMET the most easterly.

Latest run (4:00 pm Sunday) has Michael slowing down and making landfall Wednesday afternoon east of PC, near Port St. Jo., but stronger as a Cat2.

Western edge of the cone is now at about the Florida line. This may not be our turn.

Whoops, I see Pier#r has updated the map, above.

"Michael" is now classified a hurricane and predicted to become a 'major' one sometime Tuesday until landfall Wednesday somewhere near Cape San Blas, FL.
Our forecast remains problematic due to the influence and proximity of this system:

Synopsis: Hurricane Michael, in the Yucatan Channel, emerges into the southern Gulf late today and lifts northward over the central Gulf Tuesday. As Michael approaches the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast, expect increasing winds, high seas and increased rain chances heading into the middle of the week. Stay tuned for the very latest updates on Hurricane Michael.

Rest Of Today

East winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tonight

Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Seas around 8 feet building to around 11 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday

Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 13 to 15 feet. Dominant wave period 14 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 25 to 30 knots becoming northeast. Seas around 15 feet building to around 17 feet. Dominant wave period 14 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday

Hurricane conditions possible. North winds 25 to 30 knots becoming northwest. Seas around 17 feet. Dominant wave period 14 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

Tropical storm conditions possible. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday

Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night

North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.

Friday

North winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.

The possibility certainly exists for swells of sufficient size to damage the GSPPier Tuesday night and thru much of Wednesday!
I hope they at least removed the 'down' lights?

They were pulling the down lights while I was there today #r

Praying for all in Michael's path. Y'all stay safe down there!

Did you all notice that the LOW on both Thursday and Friday is supposed to be 59 degrees?

That's in Mobile and other places inland.
It will be several degrees warmer on the coast because the water is still in the low 80s.
But Lower 60s in the morning sounds GREAT!
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...9#.W7zw4GhKjcs

[QUOTE=Pier#r;132006]
Lower 60s in the morning sounds GREAT!
[/QUOTE]

My hope is that a little cooler weather will usher-in the whiting and croaker bite. And maybe it will get the speckled trout/redfish feeding again! I suppose that asking for a king mackerel chew-down is asking too much?

Myself, hoping ALL the sharks freeze to death (slowly and painfully ;-)

Yes, maybe the bite will be more like what we expect to see in the fall.
Just wish the flies won't get too bad on the beach!

Mid day update from NHC...

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO......LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
Hurricane Michael is centered as of 1 p.m. CDT over the eastern Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles (540 km) south of Panama City, Florida. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts - a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Okaloosa County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Anclote River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay, and from the Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border, and from the Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay; the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and from Fernandina Beach, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office www.weather.gov For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Text complete advisory will be issued at 4 p.m. CDT - www.hurricanes.gov