Thread: Tropics 2018...

Well the computer models keep nudging the forecast track eastward, and that is hopefully a 'good thing' for us.
And the Marine Forecast is no longer calling for pier armageddon (though the wake swell may hang around all week)...

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
Synopsis: The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has shifted the track of Alberto a little farther eastward, with landfall expected generally in the vicinity of the Florida Panhandle just west of Panama City Monday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds are still possible across much of the marine area on the western side of Alberto Sunday night into Monday evening. Please refer to the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.

Today

Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tonight

Tropical storm conditions expected. Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 10 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

Monday

Tropical storm conditions expected. Northeast winds around 40 knots with higher gusts becoming north. Seas 8 to 10 feet. showers and thunderstorms.

Monday Night

Tropical storm conditions expected. West winds 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. Seas 9 to 11 feet. Dominant wave period 11 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday

Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night

Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday

Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday Night

South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday

South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Originally Posted by Pier#r

Well the computer models keep nudging the forecast track eastward, and that is hopefully a 'good thing' for us.
And the Marine Forecast is no longer calling for pier armageddon (though the wake swell may hang around all week)...

I was worried about the previous Piermageddon forecast with 20 foot seas! Maybe all it will do is disrupt fishing for a week (wouldn't this have been a great time to harvest sharks?)

When will the carnage from "Alberto" ever end?????

Oh the humanity!!!

Originally Posted by Pier#r

When will the carnage from "Alberto" ever end?????

That's just awful !!! !!!

I get a feeling there's a Gov't. FEMA relief check headed your way.

Spilt my beer laughing.
Does that qualify for Federal Disaster Relief Funding?

Seriously though, "Alberto" recently made landfall near Laguna Beach, Fl (just northwest of Panama City Beach),
with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots and gusts (Tyndall AFB) of 59 knots.
Several NW FL counties are under Flash Flood WARNINGS.
That is less than 100 miles east of Gulf Shores.
Had the storm not 'jogged' eastward repeatedly, it could well have been GS in the 'bullseye' (and with a more powerful storm).

Thank You Lord that did not not happen, and I pray for the welfare and relief of those caught in the tempest!

So will GSP get a second lodge or pier due to the wrath of Alberto?

Lay Lake got a lot worse than GSP from Alberto.

Well, here it is...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/022046.shtml

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018
The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning....