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8LikesThread: Tropical Storm Making Its Way?
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08-28-2019, 03:52 PM #11Senior Member
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Dorian has taken a jog to the right, sparing Puerto Rico the worst of it and hitting the British Virgin Isles (Charlotte Amalie) with the NE quadrant, but the models (UKMET, HWRF and Ensemble) are moving towards it crossing Florida and coming into the Gulf. Base GFS still has it staying northwesterly after landfall and not getting to the Gulf.
I can do without this one.People are shocked to see sharks in the water around here.
If you see natural water taste it. If it's salty it has sharks in it. If it's fresh it has alligators in it. If it's brackish it has both.
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08-28-2019, 05:54 PM #12We are there! Let's go fishing!!
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a LOT of folkses in south Florida might be taking a 'trip' over the Labor Day weekend.
"Dorian" is now predicted to become a major hurricane prior to landfaling there...
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08-28-2019, 07:05 PM #13Senior Member
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I don't think we can quit watching this one yet. It could still shake the coconuts out of our tree.
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08-28-2019, 07:58 PM #14Senior Member
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Now projected a 3 on the channel I watch
Bill..............
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08-28-2019, 08:40 PM #15Senior Member
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The GFS Ensemble has been painting a bullseye on us for a few days now. I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=ensemblePeople are shocked to see sharks in the water around here.
If you see natural water taste it. If it's salty it has sharks in it. If it's fresh it has alligators in it. If it's brackish it has both.
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08-29-2019, 03:13 AM #16Senior Member
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Apparently my hope for not much of tempest was in vain.
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08-29-2019, 08:41 AM #17We are there! Let's go fishing!!
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The models still have a LOT of divergence after 3 days ahead.
Originally Posted by frednic
But the 'latest' consensus seems to indicate an abrupt turn the north/northeast ("recurve") at some point over Florida/NE GoM before it reaches us...
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08-29-2019, 03:26 PM #18Senior Member
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Yeah, some of the latest models show an initial turn into S. FL and then an abrupt turn NORTH along the coast toward GA and SC/NC. If those models hold, then the latest prediction would mirror something close to what Hurricane Matthew did in 2016.
Here's the track for Hurricane Matthew in 2016:
Last edited by eym_sirius; 08-29-2019 at 03:43 PM. Reason: Wishing it away!
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You would think I would know this!