MOBILE, Alabama -- Today marks the beginning of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, and emergency management officials across the Alabama and Mississippi coasts are urging citizens to prepare for the worst, even while hoping for the best.
On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its predictions for this year’s hurricane season, calling it “near-normal.” According to NOAA’s website, there is a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms with winds higher than 39 mph. Four to eight of those could become hurricanes, with winds at 74 mph and higher, and as many as three of those could top 111 mph, which would make them Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes.
The website states an “average season” produces “12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”
Prior to today’s official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, two named storms have already run their course: tropical storms Alberto and Beryl. The next named storm will be called Chris.
“The message we must get to people is, ‘All it takes is one storm,’” said Baldwin County EMA Director Mitchell Sims. “It doesn’t matter if the scientists are telling us 10 (named storms) or 20, all it takes is that one to really affect us, so we have to be prepared.”
Sims said he and his staff have been training and meeting about hurricane preparedness for weeks in order to be ready for that “one storm” that would require the county’s emergency management to move into action — which would include opening some or all of its 10 hurricane shelters.
He said another concern was with Gulf waters running warmer than usual in the wake of a mild winter and spring. Such conditions could spawn severe storms much closer to, or within, the Gulf of Mexico, instead of the traditional model in which they often form off the western coast of Africa.
Such a possibility would drastically shorten the amount of preparation time coastal residents would have before a storm could conceivably make landfall.
Bill Williams, who directs the University of South Alabama’s Coastal Weather Research Center, said lower temperatures in the Atlantic have led to a smaller amount of “Cape Verde-type” storms predicted to form off of the coast of Africa in 2012.
“Instead, what we’ll tend to see will be tropical storms forming at a higher latitude, similar to what we saw in the last week or so (with Tropical Storm Beryl),” Williams said. “And that includes the Gulf of Mexico.”
Such also is a concern for Donald Langham, director of emergency management in Jackson County, Miss. His office coordinates three existing shelters and is overseeing the construction of five more — two of which would serve George County to the north.
Langham said two of his concerns this year are folks who have recently moved into the area who may not prepare properly because of low hurricane activity in the Gulf over the past few years; and storms forming in the warmer waters closer to the Gulf Coast, reducing the amount of time folks have before trouble arrives.
“That’s what I’m concerned with this year, the ones that may form up closer in and not give people enough time,” Langham said.
He said his office participated in a statewide “tabletop drill” Thursday, during which state officials simulated a hurricane situation that required local emergency management staff to work through simulated shelter openings and equipment relocation and use.
Similar preparations have happened in Mobile County as well, according to John Kilcullen, director of plans and operations for the Mobile County Emergency Management Agency. That agency oversees more than two dozen shelters throughout the county.
“We’ve conducted a review of our existing plans, and reviewed the status of various agencies and departments that have responsibilities (in emergency situations),” Kilcullen said. “And that process will continue throughout the season, even if there’s no activity.
“We’re always looking for ways to improve performance and get additional resources if we need them.”
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