Thread: Watching the tropics

Wednesday June 1st is the 'official' beginning of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, but we've already had two named storms (one was a hurricane).

Not to cast any specters but the NHC is watching the south central GoM for possible development early next week...

In the Atlantic, computer models suggest that a broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
Additional development of the low should be slow to occur as the low moves slowly north- northeastward.

I pray we have another storm-free year!

Well, aint that special.

Let's hope it ain't "too special" ;-)

Further complicating the forecast is that both the ECMWF and GFS are
projecting a topical disturbance into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday nightand moving it into the northeastern Gulf Monday night. At 1:00 AMCDT this morning...NHC was projecting a 20% chance of TropicalCyclone formation in the Gulf. At this time, there is still a greatdeal of uncertainty as to whether or not this feature will indeed develop...stay tuned.

Today, I cleared my schedule for a few days of fishing later next weekend and the following week. If there's an event -- It's going to happen then, the days that I'm taking off to fish!

Lots of good fishing before and after big storms.

And during the storm if its not too bad lol

From Friday afternoon NWS Mobile Forecast Discussion:

at this point...the main forecast impact will be long period swell that
arrives by midday sunday. this will act to dramatically increase the rip
current threat and this will last through tuesday. it is possible wecould issue a coastal flood advisory for the period sunday throughlate monday monday once more details become available regarding thedevelopment of this system. tides are forecast to be 1 to 1.5 feet above astronomical predictions.

NWS Coastal Marine Forecast:
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtb.../gm/gmz650.txt

SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH. SEAS 2 TO3 FEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHTSOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAYEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHTEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. CHANCEOF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAYNORTH WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

Saying prayers for a non-event. Y'all have suffered enough.

South Carolina dodged the first minor splash of the season over Memorial Day weekend, just as I pulled out ahead of it heading west. I drove two days to drive into flash-flood warnings in Texas. If all the weather patterns bring us are spoiled weekend plans, I will be very happy.

Well, right about it on cue it formed:
National Hurricane Center


The good news is we are not in the 'cone of death' and it is forecast to have minimal effect on us here (no rain, mostly light north wind).
In fact the main effect would be an increase in swell height for a couple of days as it passes far to our southeast...

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtb.../gm/gmz650.txt

MONDAY
EAST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET. SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY
NORTH WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.