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The latest run brings the wave that is in the Atlantic into the GOM and then rapidly organizes it. When it gets to the coast it begins to wander before hitting us. I know this is a week out and very uncertain, but it bears watching. Time to be sure we have bottled water, fuel, etc..
Model Guidance: Cycles and Products (noaa.gov)
Yeah, the latest GFS run has been ominous for our region, but THE SYSTEM IS NOT EVEN AN INVEST YET. Other models keep it over the Florida peninsula and some tour it up the East Coast.The models are split because nothing has even begun to form though there is an area of increased cloudiness in the vicinity of the wave today (east of Puerto Rico) ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
When do we dust off the cone of death?
We may well see the "CoD" this weekend. This disturbance was classified as Invest 97L by the NHC this morning. But it is currently over Hispaniola (Dominican Republic). Most weather models are now expecting it to drift westward near Cuba, with slow development... https://i.postimg.cc/XqD4vr9k/hhh.jpg Then enter the GoM and do some kind of loopy thing off the SW FL coast as steering winds collapse next week. Only God knows when, where, or how strong it will be...
Still no defined center, but a better idea where this is going now. And glad to see that is away from us! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png
https://scontent-atl3-2.xx.fbcdn.net...7w&oe=66B37204Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave
Now the GFS has another storm following the same path as Debby only one week later, i.e. crossing Cuba as a depression into the GoM on Saturday.
Sure hope that one misses us too.
Fortunately the National Hurricane Center isn't buying into the GFS on drugs hype, instead coursing it across the Caribbean Sea into Mexico (maybe) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_7d0.png