Quote:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018
The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning....
