Thread: Tropics 2018...

Yes, it's only mid-May.
But lookie here, we got a 30% potential of a subtropical development in the eastern GoM this coming week...


We have already been getting a 2' to 4' 6 to 7 second interval ground swell from the unorganized system.
Most likely it will be not much else to concern us (maybe rain on Tuesday), but the potential (slight) is there and bears watching...

This seems to be 'the year' for watching upper level lows moving northward from the Caribbean Sea with minimal development potential.
Of course the 'official' start of the season is still a week and a half away.

Anyway, for your entertainment purposes only...

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic basin was issued by NHC at 8:30 a.m. EDT.NHC is closely monitoring the widespread cloudiness and showers that extend from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula, associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local NWS weather office at www.weather.gov

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by NHC by 8:00 p.m. EDT tonight - www.hurricanes.gov

It looks like a "wet" Memorial Day Weekend...


BTW, NHC upped the chance of tropical or subtropical development to 40%

Maybe what we've been needing (to break up this grass outbreak) is a strong onshore flow,
and it looks like we are going to get it later this week...

Wednesday

South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday

East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday Night

South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Friday

East winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Friday Night

Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Saturday

East winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night

Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday

Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night

South winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Its gonna blow:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

... and RAIN!!!!

Gee whizzzzz...

synopsis: A light to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue over the marine area through friday. Easterly winds and seas will begin to build by saturday and continue into early next week in response to a developing area of low pressure tracking northward over the central gulf of mexico. Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expect saturday through early next week.

tonight

south winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

friday

south winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

friday night

south winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

saturday

east winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

saturday night

east winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 18 to 23 knots. Seas around 4 feet building to around 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

sunday

northeast winds 30 to 35 knots. Seas around 8 feet building to around 10 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

sunday night

southeast winds 30 to 35 knots. Seas 11 to 13 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

monday

south winds 30 to 35 knots. Seas 11 to 13 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms.

monday night

south winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

tuesday

south winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

tuesday night

southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...cks_latest.png

Bad thunderstorm here on Coosa River yesterday. Fifty plus wind and two inches rain in less than an hour. Garden flattened and limbs down all over the yard.

And we now have a named storm:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents