Thread: Tropical Storm Making Its Way?

At this point especially, computer models stretching more than a week out are mere mathematical conjecture.
It certainly bears watching, but the NHC is saying the variables of even their 5 day forecast are "low confidence" especially for the intensity forecast... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../250248.shtml?
This shows the spread of the CMC models...


Anyway, the position and width of 'the cone' says a lot about how many prayers will be said in this hemisphere over the coming 2 weeks...

Originally Posted by Pier#r

At this point especially, computer models stretching more than a week out are mere mathematical conjecture.

It's because some of the models line up for the storm to pass across south Florida and end up in the Gulf that this is one to watch. To be sure, "end up in the Gulf" doesn't mean, necessarily, hurricane/tropical storm conditions for Gulf Shores.
I should have given credit for the graphics to Mike's Weather Page, which creates usable, if mere, models for conjecture.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

I've been following the GFS because of the two days of snapper fishing next week and it has been showing a front of varying strength moving across us late in the week. That front is probably the key to whether or not Dorian (IF it even strengthens to hurricane) comes towards us. It can push Dorian to the North or squeeze Dorian south into Mexico, but if the front dissipates then Dorain can come our way.

"Dorian" is still sending a LOT of 'mixed signals' about its strength and position giving forecasters fits.
As of now, a week away this is the NWS best guesstimate...


A weak TS (1009 mb low) in the NE gulf is practically a non-event for us.
Let's hope so!

I will be following this thread as we are set to arrive in GS on 9/7.

Here's the latest from Mike's Weather Page about Dorian:

["Dorian in my nutshell. Looking at Tropical Storm conditions in the Caribbean the next couple days. Most all models show main development chances after the DR/PR crossover. New center reformed north today playing trickery on models. Now PR might take the brunt Wed. How it survives over PR and DR is the key. If a core still exists definite shot to intensify in the Atlantic. Yes could completely die... but almost no models show this chance. Dorian gets pulled more northward and through parts of the Bahamas Fri/Sat with a turn westward. Models fanning out from SFL to even north of Florida now. More time over the hot Gulf and favorable conditions could ramp this up. This is NOT in the official NHC forecast as of now. But my gut says yes. Latest ensembles trending maybe a turn northward close to impact. This will allow more strengthening over the Gulf stream and put GA/SC/NC in play. This has my attention. If it hits the peninsula of Florida could escape into the Gulf. Saturday looks like the best day for Florida. Saturday night into Sunday things go downhill. If does trend north most of the weather is to the north and east so most of the peninsula would be dry with a later landfall into Sun/Mon even up north. Lots to watch. But making sense. Nothing to worry about in the long-term right now. Just nothing solid yet. Just be prepared for any of these scenarios. Could get real hectic over the weekend if Dorian is forecast to strengthen. Will go live at 8:18pm to chit-chat. www.spaghettimodels.com / Drunk Donkey gear at teespring.com/stores/mikes-weather-page "]

looking more and more like a north Florida/Georgia landfalling hurricane...


Impact here will likely be a drier northeasterly wind building over the weekend...
https://marine.weather.gov/MapClick....0#.XWZzXuhKjcv

Today

Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight

Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.

Thursday

Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.

Thursday Night

Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.

Friday

Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.

Friday Night

East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.

Saturday

East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of thunderstorms and slight chance of showers.

Saturday Night

East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday

East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night

Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

However, as noted in the NHC latest discussion on "Dorian...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/280848.shtml

However, there has been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Friday into Saturday AM looks like awesome fishing days to me. I would be on the pier if I could, just in case something glorious blows in. But....I can't. Sure hope it isn't much of a tempest anywhere....