We're not even halfway through hurricane season, so there's another one brewing - Irma. It's way too far off to predict if it's going toward the Gulf/USA mainland, but here it is.
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6548&stc=1
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We're not even halfway through hurricane season, so there's another one brewing - Irma. It's way too far off to predict if it's going toward the Gulf/USA mainland, but here it is.
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6548&stc=1
Models mostly showing it going up the Atlantic coast, but year, its too far out to say for sure
Irma went straight from a Tropical Storm to a Category 2 Hurricane! It's still way out there and already a Cat-2! Keep an eye on it! What a tragedy it would be for another major hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast!
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6549&stc=1
The GFS model had that one turning into a major storm before it even left Africa, but it has been consistently keeping it in the Atlantic, just grazing the East Coast.
Now I understand the European model shows it headed for the Antilles.
Models here.
Model Guidance
It's now a hurricane, forecast to become a 'Major hurricane' by Friday and threaten the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week...
HURRICANE IRMA
Wunderground has all the GFS runs (mostly to East Coast and Atlantic) and European (mostly GoM) runs posted at the link below.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ir...ange-questions
Here's the latest on Irma. Hopefully, it'll track into the North Atlantic and die out there without hitting the mainland! It's expected to be a Category 4 - at least! A real MONSTER of a storm.
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6550&stc=1
Hoping for the same thing, and done for the season
If you want the best info go to spaghettimodels.com an see what Mike has to say. ALL the weather stations get their info from NOAA, the same people that pride themselves on knowing exactly how many snapper there are in the gulf. This guy uses NOAA info, but more important, knows how to read things a stupid computer cant.
Mike's Weather Page
Best weather info IMHO
Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!
Well that is just WOW, more than I can get in just one sitting. This site will come in handy, so thank you.
Mike is doing a live update now. Best info around!Quote:
Originally Posted by RamZ
Yes Bo - it is a ton of information. Mike does a great job of breaking it down, and highlighting the important stuff we need to watch. Join his FB page and he will keep you updated with posts and live feeds.
Most fishermen are weather nerds anyway, I mean who of us have not had the weather channel playing for hours on end...and not even think it was weird?
Crap, now I am seeing some more spaghetti projections entering the gulf.....thing seems to be drifting a little further south
fer sure it has garnered a LOT of interest (not to mention the rampant speculation).
The 5 day consensus (and the NHC) puts it somewhere near the east end of Cuba.
So by the end of the week we should have a much better idea of the course and effects...
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guida...NS.png?8695221
High pressure system off the Atlantic coast is holding up the turn. Where it goes, Irma will not. Euro models predict a weakening high, and prompting a hard turn north and a reversing track. All others are anticipating the high to grow and spin the hurricane up the heart of Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas.
scary tract for all since most all predict she will be sitting over Cuba on Saturday morning.
A BIG player in the future course (and intensity) of Hurricane "Irma" is the strong cold front slated to push deep into the GoM this week.
It is very strong for this time of year and (at this point) the NHC (best guess) is thinking it will keep the storm along the east coast of Florida early next week...
http://www.gulfshorespierfishing.com...tid=6556&stc=1
source: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
Cool up here the past couple days and the rest of the week....hope that makes the difference on the storm and maybe the catching the next few weeks into the fall.....my bride keeps reminding me on past fall (oct) trips it was real good the weeks before we got there (sep)
Every time I look at this, it looks worse and worse. Prayers for you guys, and be safe!!
Irma is now a strong Cat 5, 175 MPH.
Models are in general agreement that it will enter the Florida Straits, but then all bets are off. Some still predicting a hard right turn right up the FL Peninsula, others take it NE into the Atlantic, and then others have it smacking the central Gulf Coast.
Wont know until later this week if I need to start buying plywood, water and canned goods.
Time to get water and wait.
A good supply of water and caned or other long term stored food is always a smart thing to have, First aid kit , flashlight and batteries too.
Don't get caught short , If where you are is the target "Get Gone ASAP"
But you that live there already know that , It's not your first rodeo.
I'm not liking the looks of this storm.
I'd say that, beach/near beach residents, if the storm starts heading for Alabama, don't even think of staying and riding it out. It's likely to be as strong as Andrew, depending on where it hits land. Just YIKES! Everyone in its path might want to make contingency plans well in advance. I wouldn't want to wish this one on ANYBODY, ANYWHERE! No need to panic. Yet. But it doesn't hurt to have a plan.
Problem is where do you run to?
Go north and it will take a week to get back.
Go east and you might be in it worse that if you stayed put.
And going west far enough is not an option in post-Harvey world.
Luckily, we are at 250' and don't have to worry about water, "just" trees falling on the house.
But I lived in GS, OB, DI or down in the Bayou, or anywhere waterfront, I'd be pretty nervous right about now.
If I were anywhere in south FL, I'd be downright scared...
I "rode out"Hurricane Fredick back in '79 and my pants are still drying out. If that storm looks like it's even thinking about Orange Beach, I'm gone to the hunting camp. Easier to live there in case of a massive power outage that lasts a while.
If it gets in the gulf, I won't be coming......at least delayed to see where it's headed too......dang all that jerky made
This storm hitting the mainland would be more like Hurricane Andrew hitting Homestead, FL.
If you had that knowledge beforehand, what would you do? If you needed to leave because your house wasn't built to withstand wind gusts of 180 mph, you'd just do it. You'd make arrangements beforehand to take that time away and to keep you and your family safe.
Hurricanes aren't all the same. Some do their damage because of the incredible winds and overwhelming storm surge. Others devastate the region due to flooding which may come from torrential rains. Many spawn scores of tornadoes. If it's a Cat-3 that's just going to blow through, I might try to ride it out. Monster Storms always win, though. No sense in doomsday projections until -- it's time for a doomsday projection. Just know that a million people will have the same idea to wait until absolutely the last minute to evacuate. Prepare, in case it comes close enough to cause outages, but not devastation.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q...A8&FORM=IQFRBA
The best odds, according to the models, is for the storm to hit the KEYS and head due north. If I were in the KEYS, I'd be packing for my trip out of town right now, because you can always unpack. System dynamics COULD keep the storm away from seriously affecting AL. It's still early, but something to definitely watch, no matter where you're from or what you're doing!Quote:
Originally Posted by ironman172
Folks around here remember Ivan and the 2-3 weeks without power. I just made my annual trip to Wally World, sold out of bottled water, bread, and milk already.
If I lived near the coast I would already have plywood cut to fit every hole that needed plugging stored away for a rainy day. I already keep a good supply of survival food, and I have a way to store a couple of weeks worth of drinking water. Gas grill, smoker and twin 35,000 btu gas cook top. We just replenish the canned goods it as we use it to keep it from going bad. A 5000w generator and a supply of fresh gasoline will keep the food in the deep freezer good for a long time if you use it for a couple of hours and then turn it off for a few hours. We keep several fresh Duracell batteries and small LED flashlights.Quote:
Originally Posted by CarlF
Both of my parents were teenagers living in Mobile when Fredrick rolled through. I've grown up hearing horror stories about it. The wife and I are headed down Friday night and will be staying with my grandparents for the weekend before heading over to OB (assuming the weather holds out). I'll be making sure my grandparents are fully stocked on any and all provisions, regardless if the storm comes to town or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Haywire
While not set in stone, according to Fox10's Michael White, the latest models have the front that is moving in on us tomorrow moving further south than originally thought, pushing the forecast tracks to the east and causing Irma to go up the east coast to the Carolina area
I sure hope so.....I'll be arriving with the cold front then....keeping an eye on the weather....don't want to add to the problem and evacuation if there is one
Attachment 6574
This is how I see it!
Models are in very good agreement that Irma is going to go over the Keys and then head up the FL Peninsula, into the GA Bight and then smack the Carolinas.
If you are in the Keys, you shoulda left yesterday.
If you live in south FL or near the east coast of south FL, you should have left yesterday.
I stopped at WalMart in Jackson, AL yesterday and the water was flying off the shelves, along with the Spam. I guess folks up this way remember being without power for days after Ivan, though we never did run out of city water.
Me, I stay prepared for these storms. Fredrick made me a believer. I'm like Mark, keeping stocks of food, water, paper goods, lighting sources, emergency meds, etc. The main difference is that he has a generator. I have four, one of which runs on propane and takes care of most of the house. (I found folks who were moving away and selling generators, cheap.)
By the way, I have found that marine gas (no alcolhol) keeps just fine for two years if you double treat it with Stabil. After the second hurricane season, it gets run through the automobiles and a fresh supply put in place. I sure am glad I bought gas cans back before they got so sophisticated and expensive. Sure do hope I get to use this current supply on the highway.
People around here are going crazy looking for bottled water. I stopped yesterday on my way to work and WalMart was out and one woman was going berserk because they didn't have any bottled water (several local churches purchased pallets of water to take to Houston earlier this week). She had several 2 liter drinks in her shopping cart along with a gallon of milk and gallon of OJ. I asked her what she did with the empty coke bottles and milk/juice jugs. She said that they just throw them away when they are empty. She sort of got upset when I told her she didn't need bottled water then. She looked at me like I was crazy when I told her to just clean the coke bottles and milk/juice jugs out and put water in them (add several drops of bleach or freeze them) and she'd have plenty of water.
People also don't understand that if you fill your vehicle up with gas today, by the time the storm would have arrived, you'd have to fill up again (and possibly two times). One thing I always did when I had my boat, was to keep the fuel tank full (26 gallon fuel tank) and add some Stabil during hurricane season. That way, if a storm hit and no one could get gas, I would be able to use the 26 gallons in the boat. If I took the boat out, I'd refill it on my way home to keep the tank full.
Wife and I went to Sam's Club here in Newnan Ga to pick up a few things, Now we are a long way from any of the targeted areas, But water was almost gone, I asked when we were checking out if she's seen a lot more than normal getting water, She said Alot and there truck shipment of water was diverted.
Now we have 2 more Hurricanes out there,