Thread: Invest 98 in the Pacific - Crossover T.S. ?

There's a disturbance in the Pacific that some (a couple of) models have coming right our way. It happens sometimes. Maybe not THIS time! It could form into a tropical storm if it makes it into the Gulf. It's just something to keep an eye on....

It is possible elements of that Pacific system may cross over and enhance the Atlantic tropical wave that is being monitored...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located near the northeastern Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico,Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday,the disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky

Long range (3-5 day) forecasts are now 50% chance of this tropical wave developing in the central Gulf.
But the Pacific TD is not going to "cross over"...

Most likely scenario (for now) is for it to be a non-tropical low...

The GFS brings us a storm on Friday night with 25-35 kt winds. It shows the heaviest weather over towards Panama City. Maybe a king bite Friday if there's not too much lightning in it.